日经济成长趋势.ppt

* * * FROM 2008 OCT PRE-BOD PPT (PREPARED BY BEN) * VOIP / SKYPE compete w/ PSTN by “on-net free” * CHT also dominatesfixed data biz * South Korea / Japan are market leader in FTTxTaiwan will follow the trend FTTH Penetration * What we see in JapanSaturated in Wired, FTTx will replace ADSL Source : NRI Mil Subs * Customer demand more bandwidth Y2015 internet traffic estimation * CATV * Taiwan Cable Household Penetration (Excludes CHT MOD) 63.4% Charged users 21.6% Pirates (non-paying viewers) 15% non adopters Sourced : NCC, AC Nelson Total Households in Taiwan 7.6M * CATV market share (安博凱MBK) (麥格理Macquarie) 27 Indep. CATVs (卡萊爾 Carlyle Group) 18% 1,013K subs 20% 1,090K subs 13% 708K subs 6% 321K subs 22% 1,200K subs 9% 507K subs 12% 650K subs (e) Source: NCC website, News * Summary * CHT is big Giant and takes almost 50% share  * 台灣電信產業之三年展望 有線電視 電信三雄 CHT/TWM/FEGTS 其它 PHS / APTG/Vibo 5 + 1 WiMax 執照 規模雖小但因有區域保護特性固有穩健的收益 將演進到電話通訊及網際網路服務 市場逐漸成熟，高建置成本，有限的終端出口 最有可能以語音網內免費及單一數據接取費率推出 技術面仍不夠成熟 - 其他對手將會持續以價格來搶奪電信三雄的市佔率 - PHS是否能夠繼續營運? 是否會有策略投資者?上市計畫? 過度競爭及實施單一費率將會持續影響語音營收 既有市場成長有限，市場焦點將轉移至併購策略 中華電將會持續在最後一哩擁有舉足輕重的地位 MVNO MVNO 領域有成長機會 品牌的大型販賣場，特定族群，連鎖商店為潛力對手 * Blurring Of Competitive Forces  The pressure is the need for new value creation. (e.g. wireless commerce/ entertainment/ sync./ creation/ share where investments are not small and returns not as large Fix Mobile Convergence Environment + IP phone Wireless Internet Mobile TV MOD New technologies allow traditional non-wireless players to compete for the same pie, inducing price cuts The challenges: New value creation. (e.g. commerce/ entertainment/ sync./ creation/ share (where investments can be huge and returns not as good as voice revenues) * “It is not the strongest nor the most intelligent of the species that survive,, but the one most responsive to change.” ~ by Darwin Charles “倖存下來的不是最強的物種， 或是最聰明的物種， 而是最能因應變化而做出調適的物種”。 ~ 達爾文 * 不是給人們現在的需求, 而是給他們將來的渴望 * *