Observational Learning文献15. The Sound of Silence Observational Learning in the U.S. Kidney Market.pdfVIP

informs ® Vol. 29, No. 2, March–April 2010, pp. 315–335 issn 0732-2399 eissn 1526-548X 10 2902 0315 doi 10.1287/mksc.1090.0500 ©2010 INFORMS The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the U.S. Kidney Market Juanjuan Zhang Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02114, jjzhang@ Mere observation of others’ choices can be informative about product quality. This paper develops an individual-level dynamic model of observational learning and applies it to a novel data set from the U.S. kidney market, where transplant candidates on a waiting list sequentially decide whether to accept a kidney offer. We find strong evidence of observational learning: patients draw negative quality inferences from earlier refusals in the queue, thus becoming more inclined towards refusal themselves. This self-reinforcing chain of inferences leads to poor kidney utilization despite the continual shortage in kidney supply. Counterfactual pol- icy simulations show that patients would have made more efficient use of kidneys had the concerns behind earlier refusals been shared. This study yields a set of marketing implications. In particular, we show that