基于DohaDevelopmentRoundEgyptWhatIfTheCapitalis.ppt

OUTLINE INTRODUCTION RESULTS DEMAND SIDE SUPPLY SIDE CONCLUSION Introduction What would happen to Egyptian economy in the long run during DOHA Development process? : `the exogenous variable “capital” becomes endogenous…` So, the initial model reflects the short run while our model reflects the long run… Version Version : egypt200 26 x 12 sectors and regions Egypt, China, EU, LDC, India, USA… etc. Apparel and Leather Products, Fibers, Textiles, Trade and Financial Services, Metal Products, Wood and Paper… etc. Closure Trade balance is fixed swap dtbalr(LDC) = dpsave(LDC); swap dtbalr(CENTAM) = dpsave(CENTAM); swap dtbalr(Mexico) = dpsave(Mexico); swap dtbalr(MERCOSUR) = dpsave(MERCOSUR); swap dtbalr(CHINA) = dpsave(CHINA); swap dtbalr(INDIA) = dpsave(INDIA); swap dtbalr(JAPAN) = dpsave(JAPAN); swap dtbalr(USA) = dpsave(USA); swap dtbalr(Egypt ) = dpsave(Egypt); swap dtbalr(ROW) = dpsave(ROW); Capital is endogenized swap qo(capital , REG)= expand(capital , REG); # change in investment levels relative to endowment stock # (all,i,ENDWC_COMM)(all,r,REG), EXPAND(i,r) = qcgds(r) - qo(i,r) Shocks Solution method SHOCKS from CEPII DDA Scenarios and elimination of agricultural export subsidies; Shock tms(AG_COMM, REG, REG) Shock tms(NONAG_COMM,REG,REG) Shock txs(AG_COMM,REG,REG) = target% 0 Solution Method Gregg 2-4-6 steps extrapolation Results Results-Demand Side The driving factor leading allocative efficiency from 70 ml $ to 104 ml $ is the capital : 0 to 30 million dollars… tax rate on capital : 9.8% dvol increases 300 ml $ Results-Demand Side Endowment effect increases from 74 ml $ to 211 ml $ : Capital stock qo (capital) increases from 0 to 0.74% All of the sectors increased their demand on capital; especially Wheat, Livestock, Paddyrice and Cereal. SO, IT IS THE FIRMS DRIVING THIS INCREASE IN DEMAND OF CAPITAL Results-Supply Side The total welfare of the world also increased: 54 bl $ to 120 bl $... In the short