最大风速极值估算方法.pdfVIP

最大风速极值估算方法的应用 庞文保 刘宇 （陕西省气象科技服务中心，西安 710015） 摘要：极值 Ⅰ型分布和皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线是国内外常采用的最大风速极值计算方法。用乾县和扶风两个气象站 1972-2004 年 10 分钟平均最大风速资料，分别根据 P-III 型频率分析方法、极值 Ⅰ型分析方法进行 30 年一遇和 50 年一遇自记 10 min 平均最大风速的极值推断。简要叙述了计算过程和计算结果比较。分析结果表明：P-III 型频率分析方法、极值 Ⅰ型分析方法可根据经验散布点与理论曲线拟合程度反复调整计算参数，特别应注意小概 率事件的拟合，能使理论曲线拟合满足设计部门的要求，比较好用。 关键词：工程气象保障；最大风速；计算结果比较 Application of the estimate method on the extreme value of maximum wind speed PANG Wenbao ，LIU Yu (Service Center of Meteorological Science and Technology of Shaanxi Provin,Xi’an 710015，China) Abstract ：Extremal distribution and the Pearson-III type curve are the maximal wind speed extremal fitting method often adopting at home and abroad. Based on the data of the average maximum wind speed of ten minutes of two meteorological stations in Qianxian and Fufeng of Shanxi province from 1972 to 2004, by using the methods of Pearson-Ⅲ type, Extreme value- Ⅰtype, the extreme value of average maximum wind speed happening every 30 years and 50 years was estimated. The calculation process and comparison on result were related simply. The results showed that: according to empirical scatter point and the fitting degree of theoretical curve, the methods of Pearson-Ⅲ type and Extreme value- Ⅰtype can adjust the calculation parameter repeatedly. Particularly, the fitting of small probability event should be paid attention to. These two methods can not only make the fitting of theoretical curve satisfy the demand of the design office, but also be used well. Keywords: meteorological safeguard of project, maximum wind speed, comparison on calculation result 《中国气象事业发展战略研究成果》中指出：加强重大工程气象保障可行性论证，为重大工程建设和 运行提供气象保障。重大工程建成运行后，也