基于故障率及设备重要程度的变压器风险矩阵模型.PDF

2011 年 第 5 卷 增刊 2 南方电网技术 2011 南网技术论坛获奖论文 2011 ，Vol. 5 ，Supplement 2 SOUTHERN POWER SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY Articles Awarded in CSG Forum, 2011 文章编号：1674-0629 (2011)S2-0012-04 中图分类号：TM40 文献标志码：A 基于故障率及设备重要程度的变压器风险矩阵模型 1 2 孙鹏 ，陈绍辉 (1. 云南电网电力研究院，昆明650217 ； 2. 华北电力大学云南电网公司研究生工作站，昆明650217) 摘要：采用故障树的方法计算电力变压器故障率，基于设备重要程度、资产损失程度和设备故障率三要素提出了评估变 压器风险的矩阵模型。以某一地区84 台220 kV 变压器作为算例，计算其故障率及重要程度，根据设备状态及故障率比 较，提出了设备状态的故障率分界点及设备重要程度分界点，建立了与设备重要程度和故障率相关的220 kV 变压器风 险矩阵模型。 关键词：变压器；健康指数；故障树；风险；风险矩阵模型 The Risk Matrix Model of Transformers Based on Failure Rate and Equipment Importance 1 2 SUN Peng , CHEN Shaohui （1. Electric Power Research Institute of Yunnan Power Grid, Kunming 650217, China； 2. The Postgraduate Workstation by Yunnan Power Grid Company and North China Electric Power University, Kunming 650217, China ） Abstract: Calculating the fault rate of transformers with the method of fault tree, and based on the three factors, namely the importance of equipments, loss of assets and failure rate, this paper proposes a matrix model to assesse the risk of transformers. Taking the 84 transformers of 220 kV in a certain region as an example, calculating the loss of assets and importance of equipments, and according to the comparison of equipment status and failure rate, the paper determines the demarcation points for failure rate of equipment status and the equipment importance, establishing the risk matrix model of these 220 kV transformers. Key words: transformer; health index; fault tree;