价格波动因素（Price volatility）.docVIP

价格波动因素（Price volatility） There are many ways to analyze and forecast the price trend of futures, but they can be divided into two kinds: basic factor analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis 1. supply and demand analysis Analysis of futures commodity supply Initial stock: the amount of goods accumulated in the last year or the last quarter for the public to continue to consume. Inventory of production suppliers and operator stock: can be listed at any time according to price changes Government reserves: generally do not easily put on the market Current output: the volume of goods produced for the year or quarter. In the short run, it is mainly affected by production capacity, resources and natural conditions, production costs and government policies. Imports of this period are subject to changes in domestic market supply and demand, international and domestic market prices, exchange rates, national import and export policies, and international political factors. Commodity demand analysis of domestic consumption: the factors affected the income of consumers to buy new or use capacity, the number of consumers, the consumption structure change, commodity discovery, substitute price and obtain convenience etc. International market demand analysis: the influence factors include international and domestic market supply and demand situation, domestic and export price ratio, domestic export policy and import country import policy change, customs duty and exchange rate change and so on. For example, China is one of the corn exporting countries, and the export of corn is an important factor affecting the price of corn futures. At the end of this period: when the amount of goods in short supply, at the end will be reduced; on the contrary it will increase. Analysis of the actual changes in the period of the stock, you can from the angle that the physical movement of commodity supply and demand of goods and its influence on the commodity supply and demand and price