北京大学-樊纲发展经济学15分析.ppt

Ch. 5 Dynamism of Transition:Growth of Non-state Sector and Reform of State-owned Enterprises I. The fundamental issue of transition: the Change of the ownership structure The fundamental structure of an economy: ? S J = ----- N ? S may be for “old system”, any of old ones, and N may stand for “new system, any of new ones. But the ownership structure is the most important issue and transition is about the process of change of J. --? N -- the non-state sector (vs. “private sector”) N covers variety of ownership, including many kinds of “hybrids”--- “red hat”, TVES, fake SOEs, employees’ share-holdings, …..But ? -- S – state owned sector (SOEs, state banks, …) -- S and N may refer to shares of GDP, or capital stocks, or employment, or sales, or the taxes, depending on the subject to study. In this paper, they mainly refer to the share of output or GDP. ?-- S does not includes the public-goods provision functions normally taking by the SOEs. Supposed they all in the private goods sectors. For convenience, we may assume that the provision of public sector may requires a public sector as a constant proportion in the economy, e, then we have ? S J = e + ---- , 0 e 1 N ? The “Initial Condition” ? S0 J0 = ------- N0 Subscript t = 0 indicating the “initial time” of the transition. ? II. The “fundamental process of the transition” S0 (1 + gs ) t (1 + gs ) t Jt = ---------------- = J0 ------------- —————— 0 N0 (1 + gn ) t (1 + gn ) t t → ∞ Suppose gn gs . Where gn refers to the real growth rate of the non-state sector, and gs the real growth rate of the state sector. -- gn gs is “fundamental assumption for the transition” ? -- This is the fundamental reason for the need of transition. ? -- Although the focus of