assessment of artificial neural networks for hourly solar radiation prediction人工神经网络的评估每小时太阳辐射预测.pdfVIP

Hindawi Publishing Corporation International Journal of Photoenergy Volume 2012, Article ID 946890, 7 pages doi:10.1155/2012/946890 Research Article Assessment of Artificial Neural Networks for Hourly Solar Radiation Prediction Tamer Khatib,1 Azah Mohamed,1 K. Sopian,2 and M. Mahmoud3 1 Department of Electrical, Electronic and System Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Selangor, Bangi 43600, Malaysia 2 Solar Energy Research Institute, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Selangor, Bangi 43600, Malaysia 3 Department of Electrical Engineering, Engineering Faculty, An-Najah National University, Nablus 97300, Palestine Correspondence should be addressed to Tamer Khatib, tamer khat@ Received 14 January 2012; Accepted 24 February 2012 Academic Editor: Jincai Zhao Copyright © 2012 Tamer Khatib et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This paper presents an assessment for the artificial neural network (ANN) based approach for hourly solar radiation prediction. The Four ANNs topologies were used including a generalized (GRNN), a feed-forward backpropagation (FFNN), a cascade- forward backpropagation (CFNN), and an Elman backpropagation (ELMNN). The three statistical values used to evaluate the efficacy of the neural networks were mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean bias error (MBE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Prediction results show that the GRNN exceeds the other proposed methods. The average values of the MAPE, MBE and RMSE using GRNN were 4.9%, 0.29% and 5.75%, respectively. FFNN and CFNN efficacies were acceptable in general, but