天气预报——由经验到物理数学理论和超级计算.PDFVIP

特约专稿 天气预报——由经验到物理数学理论 2012－11－16收到 † Email：zqc@ 和超级计算* DOI ：10.7693/w 曾庆存† (中国科学院大气物理研究所 北京 100029) Weather forecast——from empirical to physico- mathematical theory and super-computing system engineering ZENG Qing-Cun† (Institute of Atmospheric Physics ，Chinese Academy of Sciences ，Beijing 100029，china) 摘 要 天气预报已由经验发展成物理数学理论和超级计算的复杂而严格 的巨型系统工程。文章从物理学观点回顾了它的发展历程，探讨了它今后的发 展，并将它拓宽到了更加巨大和复杂的气候与生态环境系统的预测和调控问题 的建模，以及人工影响天气的工程理论问题。这些是跨学科的问题，需要地球 科学、数学、物理学界以及化学界和生物学界共同合作研究。 关键词 数值天气预报，经验，准地转模式，原始方程模式，集合预报， 四维同化 Abstract Weather forecasting has developed from empirical practice to physico-mathemati- cal theory and super-computing system engineering. The history of its development in the last de- cades is reviewed from a physical point of view, with a brief discussion of various problems in its fur- ther development, as well as its extension to the design of an “Earth system model”for the prediction and regulation of “climate and ecosystem-environment systems”and the engineering of artificial weather modification. Multi-disciplinary collaboration between the earth sciences, physical sciences, mathematical sciences, and other disciplines are needed. Keywords numerical weather forecast, empirical, quasi-geostropic model, primitive equations model, ensemble forecast, 4D data assimilation * 国家自然科学基金(批准号资 助项目 ·300 · ·42卷 (2013年)5期