short-term electricity price forecasting using a combination of neural networks and fuzzy inference短期电价预测使用神经网络和模糊推理的结合.pdfVIP

Energy and Power Engineering, 2011, 3, 9-16 doi:10.4236/epe.2011.31002 Published Online February 2011 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/epe) Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Using a Combination of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Inference Evans Nyasha Chogumaira, Takashi Hiyama Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan E-mail : evans@st.cs.kumamoto-u.ac.jp Received October 28, 201; revised November 3, 2010; accepted November 4, 2010 Abstract This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na- ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em- ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im- provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se- ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe- riods with price spikes. Keywords: Electricity Price Forecasting, Short-Term Load Forecasting, Electricity Markets, Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic 1. Introduction corresponding price.