无寿可修航材消耗定额模型.docVIP

无寿可修航材消耗定额模型摘要： 根据航材需求差均比大于、等于或小于1三种情况，提出负二项分布、泊松分布和二项分布三种需求分布。对服从泊松分布的二层级航材需求问题，采用负二项分布改进预测精确性。用满足率作为航材保障程度的衡量标准，并根据航材消耗定额的影响因素制定最低满足率。以给定的总保障经费和最低满足率为约束条件，总满足率最大为目标函数，建立航材消耗定额模型，采用边际分析法求解。算例证明本模型的预测效果良好。 Abstract： According to the three conditions that spares demand variance-to-mean ratio are larger than， equal to or less than 1， put forward the negative binomial distribution， poisson distribution and binomial distribution three demand distributions. For the problem that the two-echelon spares demand follows poisson distribution， used the negative binomial distribution to improve the forec