bayesian inference for identifying interaction rules in moving animal groups贝叶斯推理识别交互规则移动动物组.pdfVIP

Bayesian Inference for Identifying Interaction Rules in Moving Animal Groups Richard P. Mann* Centre for Interdisciplinary Mathematics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden Abstract The emergence of similar collective patterns from different self-propelled particle models of animal groups points to a restricted set of ‘‘universal’’ classes for these patterns. While universality is interesting, it is often the fine details of animal interactions that are of biological importance. Universality thus presents a challenge to inferring such interactions from macroscopic group dynamics since these can be consistent with many underlying interaction models. We present a Bayesian framework for learning animal interaction rules from fine scale recordings of animal movements in swarms. We apply these techniques to the inverse problem of inferring interaction rules from simulation models, showing that parameters can often be inferred from a small number of observations. Our methodology allows us to quantify our confidence in parameter fitting. For example, we show that attraction and alignment terms can be reliably estimated when animals are milling in a torus shape, while interaction radius cannot be reliably measured in such a situation. We assess the importance of rate of data collection and show how to test different models, such as topological and metric neighbourhood models. Taken together our results both inform the design of experiments on animal interactions and suggest how these data should be best analysed. Citation: Mann RP (2011) Bayesian Inference for Identifying Interaction Rules in Moving Animal Groups. PLoS ONE 6(8): e22827. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0022827 Editor: Zheng Su, Genentech Inc., United States of America Received April 29, 2011; Accepte