dengue dynamics in binh thuan province, southern vietnam periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability登革热动态阿萍thuan省,越南南部周期性、同步性和气候的变化.pdfVIP

Dengue Dynamics in Binh Thuan Province, Southern Vietnam: Periodicity, Synchronicity and Climate Variability 1,2,3 4,5 6 3 3,7,8 Khoa T. D. Thai *, Bernard Cazelles , Nam Van Nguyen , Long Thi Vo , Maciej F. Boni , Jeremy Farrar3,7, Cameron P. Simmons3,7, H. Rogier van Doorn3,7, Peter J. de Vries1,2 1 Division of Infectious Diseases, Tropical Medicine and AIDS, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 2 Center for Infection and Immunity (CINIMA), Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 3 Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh ´ City, Vietnam, 4 UMR 7625, UPMC-CNRS-ENS, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris, France, 5 UMI 209, IRD-UPMC, Bondy, France, 6 Binh Thuan Medical College, Phan Thiet City, Vietnam, 7 Center for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Center for Clinical Vaccinology and Tropical Medicine, Oxford, United Kingdom, 8 MRC Centre for Genomics and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom Abstract Background: Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Methodology: Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to