economic impact of hiv and antiretroviral therapy on education supply in high prevalence regions艾滋病毒和抗逆转录病毒治疗的经济影响在教育供给高流行地区.pdfVIP

Economic Impact of HIV and Antiretroviral Therapy on Education Supply in High Prevalence Regions 1,2 1 3 Claire L. Risley , Lesley J. Drake , Donald A. P. Bundy * 1The Partnership for Child Development, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom, 2 Liverpool University Climate and Infectious Diseases of Animals (LUCINDA) Group, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Neston, Cheshire, United Kingdom, 3 Human Development Network, The World Bank, Washington DC, United States of America Abstract Background: We set out to estimate, for the three geographical regions with the highest HIV prevalence, (sub-Saharan Africa [SSA], the Caribbean and the Greater Mekong sub-region of East Asia), the human resource and economic impact of HIV on the supply of education from 2008 to 2015, the target date for the achievement of Education For All (EFA), contrasting the continuation of access to care, support and Antiretroviral therapy (ART) to the scenario of universal access. Methodology/Principal Findings: A costed mathematical model of the impact of HIV and ART on teacher recruitment, mortality and absenteeism (Ed-SIDA) was run using best available data for 58 countries, and results aggregated by region. It was estimated that (1) The impact of HIV on teacher supply is sufficient to derail efforts to achieve EFA in several countries and universal access can mitigate this. (2) In SSA, the 2008 costs to education of HIV were about half of those estimated in 2002. Providing universal access for teachers in SSA is cost-effective on education returns alone and provides a return of $3.99 on the dollar. (3) The impacts on education in the hyperendemic countries in Southern Africa will continue to increase to 2015 from its 2008 level, already the h