future impact of various interventions on the burden of copd in canada a dynamic population model未来的各种干预措施对慢性阻塞性肺病的负担的影响在加拿大人口动态模型.pdfVIP

Future Impact of Various Interventions on the Burden of COPD in Canada: A Dynamic Population Model 1 2,3 2,3 2,3 4,6 Mehdi Najafzadeh , Carlo A. Marra , Larry D. Lynd , Mohsen Sadatsafavi , J. Mark FitzGerald , Bruce McManus5,6, Don Sin4,6* 1 Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 2 Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 3 Centre for Health Evaluation and Outcome Sciences, St. Paul’s Hospital, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 4 Division of Respiratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 5 Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of British Columbia, and The Prevention of Organ Failure Center of Excellence, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 6 The Institute for Heart and Lung Health (the UBC James Hogg Research Laboratories), Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Abstract Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a growing economic burden worldwide. Smoking cessation is thought to be the single most effective way of reducing the economic burden of COPD. The impact of other strategies such as interventions that predict risk of disease, reduce progression of disease, or reduce exacerbations has not been systematically studied. Objectives: We estimated the economic and clinical burden of COPD over the next 25 years in Canada and the impact of three potential interventions (screening test for predisposition to COPD, new drugs to avoid progression into more severe disease stages, and predictive test for exacerbations) on COPD burden. Methods: Using