基于新的威布尔分布参数估计法的设备寿命可靠性分析.docx

基于新的威布尔分布参数估计法的设备寿命可靠性分析ΞRELIABILITYLIFEANALYSISOFTHEEQUIPMENTBASEDONNEWWEIBULLDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERESTIMATIONMETHOD于晓红ΞΞ张来斌王朝晖段礼祥(中国石油大学(北京)机电工程学院,北京昌平102249)YUXiaoHongZHANGLaiBinWANGZhaoHuiDUANLiXiang(SchoolofMechanicalandElectronicEngineering,ChinaUniversityofPetroleum,Beijing102249,China)摘要针对机械设备寿命可靠性分析中模型的精度问题,提出一种联合最小二乘及平均秩次估计威布尔分布参数的新方法。常用的参数估计法人为因素影响大,精度差,而且在现场使用不便。文中提出的方法有效地解决了上述问题。在采用最小二乘法对威布尔分布进行参数估计时,经验分布函数是确定寿命模型的基准,它的精度直接影响寿命模型的精度。平均秩次法根据故障样本和中止样本估计出所有可能的秩次,求出平均秩次,代入近似中位秩公式,得到经验分布函数,有效提高参数的精度。选取30台发动机,对其进行寿命可靠性分析,结果表明,该方法具有很高的准确性和实用性。关键词威布尔分布最小二乘估计平均秩次法经验分布函数可靠性分析中图分类号TB114AbstractAccordingtothequestionofmodelprecisioninmechanicalequipmentreliabilitylifeanalysis,anewmethodestimatingtheWeibulldistributionmodel’sparametersbycombiningleast2sauaresmethodandmeanrankorderisputforward.Theusualparame2ter2estimationmethodshavedisadvantagessuchasman2madeeffect,lowprecisionanddiscommodioususeinsite,butallofthemhavebeeneffectivelyresolvedbythemethodthatputforward.Whenusingleast2sauaresmethodtomakeparameterestimationofWeibulldis2tribution,empiricaldistributionfunctionisusedasthebenchmarktoascertainthelifemodelandthelifetimemodel’sprecisionisdirectlyaffectedbyitsprecision.Themeanrankorderestimatingallrankorderbasedonfaultsamplesandceasingsamplestocalculatethemeanrankorder,thenputtingmeanrankorderintoapproximateformulaofmiddleranktogetempiricaldistributionfunctionandtheparameterprecisioniseffectivelyimprovedbythis.Thirtyengineswereselectedtoprogressreliabilitylifeanalysis,theresultshowedthatthismethodhasverystrongpracticabilityandhighprecision.KeywordsWeibulldistribution;Least2sauaresestimation;Meanrankorder;Empiricaldistributionfunction;ReliabilityanalysisCorrespondingauthor:YUXiaoHong,E2mail:yuxiaohongdl@,Tel:+86210289733406,Fax:+86210289733203TheprojectsupportedbyChinaNationalPetroleumCorporationInnovationFundandtheProgramforNewCenturyExcellentTalentsinUniversityofChina(No.NCET.05.0110).Manuscriptreceiveinrevisedfor专用且量大,无表格之处是无法使用的。而最小二乘估计法能实现