基于psr模型的郑州生态环境质量灰色预警-河南农业科学.pdf

DO I :10.15933/j .cnki .1004 -3268.2007.06.025 河南农业科学 PSR 1 2 2 2 吴克宁, 关小克 , 冯新伟 , 吕巧灵 (1. , 100083;2. , 450002) :在分析P SR 模型、广泛听取专家意见的基础上, 建立了生态环境评价指标体系。 对评价 子量化分级, 利用层次分析法确定权重后对郑州市的生态环境进行评价, 并利用灰色系统理论, 建 立了灰色系统的G M (1, 1)预测模型, 对郑州市的生态环境质量做了短期预测分析。结果表明, 郑 州市的生态环境质量比较低, 接近中度警情的值域。最后对评价结果做了分析, 提出了改善郑州市 生态环境的建议。 :生态;预警;环境质量;灰色系统;郑州 :X32 　　:A 　　:1004-3268 (2007)06-00 83-04 T he Ecological Environmen Quali y Warning of Zhengzhou U sing Gray Sy s em Based on he P S R M odel 1 2 2 2 W U Ke-ning , GUA N Xiao-ke , F ENG Xin-w ei , L U Qi ao-ling (1.Depar men of Land Science and T echnolog y, China U nive rsi y of Geo sciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2.College o f Resources and Enviro nmen al Sciences, H enan A g ricul ural U niver si y, Z heng zhou 4 50002, China) Abstract :Based o n he mo del of PSR (P ressure-Sa e-Response)and he advice of exper s, an eco - lo gical ev alua i on index sy s em w as se up .Z hengzho u ecologi cal envi ronmen quali y w as evalua- ed by g rading he evalua ion f ac ors and u sing he A H P o de ermi ne he w eigh .T he g ray sys - em heory w as u sed o es ablish a G M (1, 1)earning mo del .Based on he model, a sho r -erm f ore- cas analy sis o f ecological envi ro nmen in Z hengzhou w as done .T he resul indica ed ha he Z hengzhou ecologi cal environmen quali y i s no very goo d, near he value field of middle-g rade w arning .Fi nally, he resul of evalua ion w as analyzed and some sug ges ions abou improving he Z hengzhou ecologi cal environmen were pu fo rw ard. Key words:Eco logical;Early w arning;Environmen quali y;Gray sys em;Zheng zhou 　　, , , 。, , , , , , 。 , , 。