人口老龄化对浙江经济的影响-中国统计教育学会.docVIP

人口老龄化对浙江居民消费的影响分析 Population Aging of the Residents Consumption of Zhejiang Province 安徽财经大学 马莹、桂霏、李小月 内容摘要：人口老龄化问题是当今社会的发展趋势，人是社会消费的主体，因此人口结构的变动必然会影响居民消费的变动。本文首先通过研究人口老龄化对居民家庭消费的影响，得到人口老龄化对城镇居民的消费水平存在着显著性地影响。接着对其建立回归分析，得出的结论是人口老龄化程度每提高1%，城镇居民的人均消费水平将会增加363.58元；接着使用灰色关联度分析法分析年龄结构对消费的影响，得出不同的年龄结构对居民消费的需求不同，城乡的老年人口的消费需求也存在着很大的差异，农村老年人的居民消费还是普遍低于城镇的消费。但是通过比较城镇老年人口与农村老年人口8类消费品的排序情况可以发现，人口老龄化使得衣着、医疗保健、教育文化娱乐服务三大类消费品成为主要的消费项目。说明老龄化推动老年人更关注生活质量、身体健康和精神文化生活。最后针对于因为老龄化所带来的问题，提出了一些建议和措施。 关键词：人口老龄化；格兰杰检验； 回归分析；灰色关联度 Abstract: The phenomenon that ageing of population is society’s trendency now. Human beings are main part of social consumption, hence demographic changes must effect on consumption of residents. The essay firstly get the information of aged tendency of population have a strong influence upon urban and township people’s consumption level via researching residents’ household payment affected by ageing of population. Then setting up a Regression Analysis to it, we can draw a conclusion that degree of ageing of population raise 1% caused average consumption level per capita of urban residents increase ￥363.58. In the following part , we get three inferences by utilizing Grey Relational Analytical Method to analyse the age ratio’s influence on consumption. They are, different age ratio have different demand on consumption; there exist a wide disparity in urban and rural aged people’s demand; the aged men’s consumption in rural is lower than in urban. However, we can learn that aged tendency of population made clothes and medical care, education, culture and entertainment services consumption becoming the main consumer item by comparison the rank of eight kinds of consumer goods between aged people in rural and urban. It is obvious that aged population issue promote old people pay more attention to lives and health and mental cultural life. In the end , I came up with some suggestions and measures to the problems which ageing of population brings. Key words: Population