基于在线监测与运行条件的变压器短期可靠性模型.docVIP

基于在线监测与运行条件的变压器短期可靠性模型 摘 要：电力变压器是电力系统中的最重要设备之一，其安全可靠运行对整个电力系统的安全运行至关重要。电力系统传统可靠性评估中使用的恒故障率模型无法反映不同的运行条件、老化状况的影响。本文建立了基于在线监测信息与运行条件的变压器短期可靠性模型，该模型由基于绝缘寿命的老化失效模型、基于天气状况的偶然失效模型和基于电流的过负荷保护动作模型三部分组成。以算例计算了不同运行条件下的变压器短期可靠性，为电力系统的运行调度提供辅助决策的有效信息。 关键词：变压器；短期可靠性；在线监测；特征参量 Short-term Reliability Models of Transformer Based on On-line Monitoring and Operating Conditions Abstract: Power transformer is one of the most important equipment in power system, its safe and reliable operation render tremendous significance for the safe operation of the whole power system. Constant failure rate model used in the conventional reliability assessment of power systems cannot reflect the impacts of the various operating conditions. A hybrid conditions-dependent outage model of a transformer based on on-line monitoring is proposed in this paper to include those impacts. The model is the combination of three failure models: the aging failures due to the loss of mechanical strength of conductor insulation; the random failures considering weather conditions, and the outages caused by the direct trips of the overload protections. The component reliability using the proposed model has been tested under different operating conditions. The model can provide useful information for operators to understand possible system and component failure risk in real-time operation and to make important alleviation decisions. Keywords: transformer; short-term reliability; on-line monitoring; characteristic parameters 0 引言 随着电网规模的扩大及复杂性的提高，电力系统可靠运行面临着越来越多的难题与挑战。 电力变压器作为电力系统中的最重要设备之一，其运行可靠性直接关系到电网的安全运行，大型电力变压器一旦发生停运不仅造成设备资产方面的损失，而且会导致电力系统潮流的转移，容易引起电网瓦解及大面积的停电事故。 在电网实际运行调度中，人们所关注的是系统未来短期内的可靠性水平，但在常规的电力系统可靠性评估理论中变压器的故障率等可靠性参数取恒定值[1]，并未考虑变压器健康状况的差异性及当前运行条件对变压器停运概率带来的影响，无法进一步评估电网实时运行状态下的短期可靠性。文献[2]提出了电力系统运行可靠性的概念，在分析线路潮流、母线电压、系统频率等运行条件的基础上建立了元件的运行可靠性模型。文献[3]分析了实时可靠性模型参数变化对可靠性评估结果的影响。但文献[2，3]建立的可靠性模型只分析电气量这一运行条件，未考虑设备自身健康状况及其他运行条件。文献[4]在基于可靠性的备用规划中考虑了变压器的老化失效。文献[5]分析了环境温度及负载率与变压器老化失效的关系。文献[6]将导致元件停运的因素分为3类，综合考虑这些因素并建立