on the common method of forecasting human resource needs（的常见的方法预测人力资源需求）.docVIP

On the common method of forecasting human resource needs Abstract: Human resource forecasting manpower planning is the most important and most complex aspects of one method of forecasting human resource needs a lot of advantages and disadvantages, are commonly used in two basic methods for the use of a comparative analysis. Keywords: forecasting human resource needs First, qualitative forecasting methods 1. Management evaluation method. Management evaluation method to predict the most commonly used corporate human resource needs of a subjective prediction method it is senior managers, department managers and Human Resources Commissioner and other personnel with the forecast and to determine the human enterprise in a certain time resources. management evaluation method can be divided into bottom-up and top-down lower estimation higher estimates and French. lower estimation method is the first by the line managers based on their production capacity, staff turnover, etc. forecasters requirements, then report to higher authorities. superior estimation method is based on the organization by senior managers and development strategies and development goals such as changes in business environment forecast staffing needs. the use of management evaluation to predict staffing needs based primarily on: business goals, scale of production, market demand, sales or service size, staffing and mobility. The main drawback of this approach are: a strong subjectivity, and to judge by the judge based on those who experience a greater impact. This method is commonly used in short-term forecasts and projections will be lower in the estimation method and the combined use of the higher estimation. 2. The status quo projections. The status quo prediction method is a short-term forecast for the easiest prediction method. This method assumes that the organization and structure of the total number of employees is expected to fully adapt to the needs of managers only need t