a simple interpretation of hubbert’s model of resource exploitation一个简单的解释哈伯特的资源开发模式.pdfVIP

Energies 2009, 2, 646-661; doi:10.3390/e OPEN ACCESS energies ISSN 1996-1073 /journal/energies Article A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation Ugo Bardi 1,2,* and Alessandro Lavacchi 1,2 1 Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze, Via della Lastruccia 3, Sesto Fiorentino FI, Italy 2 ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section, c/o Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy; E-Mail: Alessandro.Lavacchi@unifi.it * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: ugo.bardi@unifi.it; Tel.: +39-055-4573118; Fax: +39-055-4573120 Received: 8 July 2009; in revised form: 4 August 2009 / Accepted: 5 August 2009 / Published: 13 August 2009 Abstract: The well known “Hubbert curve” assumes that the production curve of a crude oil in a free market economy is “bell shaped” and symmetric. The model was first applied in the 1950s as a way of forecasting the production of crude oil in the US lower 48 states. Today, variants of the model are often used for describing the worldwide production of crude oil, which is supposed to reach a global production peak (“peak oil”) and to decline afterwards. The model has also been shown to be generally valid for mineral resources other than crude oil and also for slowly renewable biological resources such as whales. Despite its widespread use, Hubbert’s modelis sometimes criticized for being