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an operational definition of a statistically meaningful trend一个操作的定义统计学上有意义的趋势
An Operational Definition of a Statistically Meaningful
Trend
Andreas C. Bryhn*, Peter H. Dimberg
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Abstract
Linear trend analysis of time series is standard procedure in many scientific disciplines. If the number of data is large, a trend
may be statistically significant even if data are scattered far from the trend line. This study introduces and tests a quality
criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high
statistical significance. The time series is divided into intervals and interval mean values are calculated. Thereafter, r2 and p
values are calculated from regressions concerning time and interval mean values. If r2$0.65 at p#0.05 in any of these
regressions, then the trend is regarded as statistically meaningful. Out of ten investigated time series from different scientific
disciplines, five displayed statistically meaningful trends. A Microsoft Excel application (add-in) was developed which can
perform statistical meaningfulness tests and which may increase the operationality of the test. The presented method for
distinguishing statistically meaningful trends should be reasonably uncomplicated for researchers with basic statistics skills
and may thus be useful for determining which trends are worth analysing further, for instance with respect to causal factors.
The method can also be used for determining which segments of a time trend may be particularly worthwhile to focus on.
Citation: Bryhn AC, Dimberg PH (2011) An Operational Definition of a Statistically Meaningful Trend. PLoS ONE 6(4): e19241. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019241
Editor: Fabio Rapallo, University of East Piedmont, Italy
Received December 3, 2010; Accepted March 28, 2011; Published April 28, 2011
Copyright: 2011 Bryhn, Dimberg. This is
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