reporting and methods in clinical prediction research a systematic review报告和临床预测方法研究系统回顾.pdfVIP

Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review 1. 1. 2 1 Walter Bouwmeester , Nicolaas P. A. Zuithoff , Susan Mallett , Mirjam I. Geerlings , 1,3 3 4 1 Yvonne Vergouwe , Ewout W. Steyerberg , Douglas G. Altman , Karel G. M. Moons * 1Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands, 2 Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, 3 Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 4 Centre for Statistics in Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom Abstract Background: We investigated the reporting and methods of prediction studies, focusing on aims, designs, participant selection, outcomes, predictors, statistical power, statistical methods, and predictive performance measures. Methods and Findings: We used a full hand search to identify all prediction studies published in 2008 in six high impact general medical journals. We developed a comprehensive item list to systematically score conduct and reporting of the studies, based on recent recommendations for prediction research. Two reviewers independently scored the studies. We retrieved 71 papers for full text review: 51 were predictor finding studies, 14 were prediction model development studies, three addressed an external validation of a previously developed model, and three reported on a model’s impact on participant outcome. Study design was unclear in 15% of studies, and a prospective cohort was used in most studies (60%). Descri