a review of data needed to parameterize a dynamic model of measles in developing countries审查数据的参数化动力学模型所需的麻疹在发展中国家.pdfVIP

Szusz et al. BMC Research Notes 2010, 3:75 /1756-0500/3/75 RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access A review of data needed to parameterize a dynamic model of measles in developing countries 1 2 1* Emily K Szusz , Louis P Garrison , Chris T Bauch Abstract Background: Dynamic models of infection transmission can project future disease burden within a population. Few dynamic measles models have been developed for low-income countries, where measles disease burden is highest. Our objective was to review the literature on measles epidemiology in low-income countries, with a particular focus on data that are needed to parameterize dynamic models. Methods: We included age-stratified case reporting and seroprevalence studies with fair to good sample sizes for mostly urban African and Indian populations. We emphasized studies conducted before widespread immunization. We summarized age-stratified attack rates and seroprevalence profiles across these populations. Using the study data, we fitted a “representative” seroprevalence profile for African and Indian settings. We also used a catalytic model to estimate the age-dependent force of infection for individual African and Indian studies where seroprevalence was surveyed. We used these data to quantify the effects of population density on the basic reproductive number R0. Results: The peak attack rate usually occurred at age 1 year in Africa, and 1 to 2 years in India, which is earlier than in developed countries before mass vaccination. Approximately 60% of children were seropositive for measles antibody by age 2 in Africa and India, according to the representative seroprevalence profiles. A statistically significant decline in the force of infection with age was found in 4 of 6 Indian seroprevalence studies, but not in 2 Af