reproductive phase locking of mosquito populations in response to rainfall frequency蚊子种群的生殖阶段锁定应对降雨频率.pdfVIP

Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency 1 2 Jeffrey Shaman *, Jonathan F. Day 1 College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America, 2 Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, Florida, United States of America The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases. Citation: Shaman J, Day JF (2007) Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency. PLoS ONE 2(3): e331. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000331 INTRODUCTION characterizes the mosquito reproductive cycle as a forced phase Mosquito populations and the transmission of mosquito-borne oscillator. The forcing term represents rainfall, which stimulates pathogens are sensitive to both temperature and hydrologic the host-seeking, blood-feeding, and egg-laying behaviors of variability [1]. As the climate changes in response to increasing female mosquitoes and, in so doing, synchroni