the roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (quercus engelmannii) under global change传播的角色、繁殖力和捕食种群中持久性的橡树(quercus engelmannii)在全球变化.pdfVIP

The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change 1 2 3 4 5 5 Erin Conlisk *, Dawn Lawson , Alexandra D. Syphard , Janet Franklin , Lorraine Flint , Alan Flint , Helen M. Regan1 1 Department of Biology, Center for Conservation Biology, University of California Riverside, Riverside, California, United States of America, 2 Environmental Sciences and Applied Systems Branch, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Pacific, San Diego, California, United States of America, 3 Conservation Biology Institute, La Mesa, California, United States of America, 4 School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America, 5 USGS California Water Science Center, Sacramento, California, United States of America Abstract A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the