北京大学经济学院工作论文.pdfVIP

通胀预期、资产替代与当前货币政策取向 李连发 北京大学经济学院工作论文 编号：C-2010-12-021 2010 年12月5 日 版权归作者所有 通胀预期、资产替代与当前货币政策取向 * 李连发 摘要：当前宏观调控面对的形势是资产价格过快上涨和通胀预期逐渐形成。在跨期转移 购买力方面，人民币作为跨期价值储存载体的吸引力下降，而房产等有价资产的吸引力上升， 这是推动通胀和资产价格过快上涨的主要原因。行政性的局部的结构性政策可能仍然会有些 效果，但有效性将随时间推移而下降，这些措施可能难以缓解中长期通胀和资产价格过快上 涨的压力。确保我国经济中长期平稳发展是硬道理。建议 2011 年在保持积极财政政策的同 时，短期内将控制通货膨胀作为首要的政策目标，回归稳健的货币政策，进一步发挥利率在 管理通胀预期中的重要作用。 关键词：通货膨胀 货币政策 资产替代 经济增长 Inflation Expectation, Assets Substitution and Current Monetary Policy Abstract: Current macroeconomic adjustment confronts rapid-rising asset prices and inflation expectation. The driver of rising asset prices and inflation expectation is mainly not structural; instead, the driver is that Renminbi becomes less attractive in being a vehicle helping store values intertemporally while assets like real estate become more attractive in playing the role. Structural policy may help but the effectiveness will become weak, in the end cannot hold asset prices and inflation in check. To ensure the smooth economic growth in the long run, controlling inflation should become the first priority while the fiscal policy is still active. As a result, monetary policy should return to the prudent stance in 2011, the role of interest rate should be emphasized. Key Words: Inflation; Monetary Policy; Asset Substitution; Economic Growth JEL Classification: E31, E50, E52 * 李连发，北京大学经济学院，邮编：100871，联系电话