铁合金出口大幅减少1FerroalloyExportsTumbled.PPT

2009年铁合金行业运行预测Outlook on Ferroalloy Industry in 2009 中国铁合金工业协会 张曾蟾 China Ferroalloys Industry Association Zhang Zengchan 一、2009年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩ⅠFerroalloy Industry Sees Market Shrinkage amid Global Economic Recession 1、世界金融危机的影响正进一步扩大，全球经济陷入严重衰退 1、World’s Economy Contracted in a Severe Recession with Ongoing Financial Crisis 世界银行2008年12月9日发布的《2009年全球经济展望报告》认为，2009年世界经济增长率将由2008年预计的2.5％调整到0.9％，在发达国家增长率为负值的情况下，发展中国家平均增长率将保持在4.5%左右。 According to 2009 Global Economic Prospect released on December 9 2008 by World Bank, world economic growth in 2009 is expected to decrease from the anticipated 2.5% to 0.9%, and average rate of developing countries will remain at 4.5% or so while developed countries will face recession. 国际货币基金组织(IMF)继2008年11月6日发布报告，预测2009年世界经济增长将从2008年预计的3.7％回落到2.2％之后，2009年1月28日发布的最新报告对2009年世界经济增长预期再次调低至0.5%，成为二战以来的最低水平，全球经济将陷入衰退。 After released a report on November 6 2008 forecasting that world economic growth in 2009 will decrease from the anticipated 3.7% to 2.2%, IMF issued a report again on January 28 2009 that the economic growth will drop to 0.5%, predicting the worst global recession since World War II. 一、2009年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩ⅠFerroalloy Industry Sees Market Shrinkage amid Global Economic Recession 其中，发达工业国家经济增长率-2％，远低于11月份预测-0.3％的降幅，整体上将陷入二战以来的首次经济衰退，除加拿大外所有发达工业国的经济都将出现负增长。国际货币基金组织(IMF)还认为新兴和发展中经济体的增长也明显放缓，将从2008年的6.3％降为3.3％，也远低于上次预测5.1%的经济增长率。 Particularly, the growth of developed countries is set at -2%, far lower than the anticipation in November 2008 of -0.3%, slipped into the worst recession since 1930s, and every developed country except Canada will face economic recession. IMF also thinks emerging economies’ growth will slow down obviously as well, down from 6.3% in 2008 to 3.3% in 2009, which is also lower than the anticipated 5.1%. 由于世界经