决策理论与正态分布分析.pdf

Module 3 Module 3 Decision Theory Decision Theory and the Normal and the Normal Distribution Distribution Learning Objectives Learning Objectives Students will be able to: 1. Understand how the normal curve can be used in performing break-even analysis. 2. Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) using the normal curve. 3. Perform marginal analysis where products have a constant marginal profit and loss. Module Outline Module Outline M3.1 Introduction M3.2 Break-Even Analysis and the Normal Distribution M3.3 EVPI and the Normal Distribution Introduction Introduction The normal distribution can be used when there are a large number of states of nature and/or alternatives. Note : it would be impossible to develop a decision table or tree if there were 50, 100, or even more states and/or alternatives! Break-Even Analysis Break-Even Analysis and the Normal and the Normal Distribution Distribution Break-even analysis, also called cost- volume analysis, answers managerial questions relating the effect of a decision to overall revenues or costs. Break-even point (units) = Fixed Costs Price/unit – Variable Costs/unit Barclay Brothers New Barclay Brothers New Product Decision Product Decision The Barclay Brothers Company is a large manufacturer of adult parlor games. They are considering introducing Strategy, a new game. Their fixed cost for Strategy = $36,000 and their va