集对分析法在长江寸滩站年径流预测中的应用.pdfVIP

第 33 卷第 4 期 黑 　龙 　江 　水 　专 　学 　报 Vol 33 ,No. 4 2006 年 12 月 Journal of Heilongjian g Hydraulic Engineering College Dec. ,2006 ( ) 文章编号 :1000 - 9833 2006 04 - 0003 - 03 集对分析法在长江寸滩站年径流预测中的应用 1 1 ,2 1 3 王红芳 ,黄伟军 ,王文圣 ,王素芳 ( 1. 四川大学 水电学院,成都　610065 ; 2. 广西水利水电职业技术学院 ,南宁 530023 ; 3. 邯郸市水电勘测设计研究院 ,河北 邯郸　056021) 摘　要 :简要介绍了集对分析的原理 ,阐述了基于集对分析的年径流预测的基本思想和步骤。通过长江寸滩站年径流集对预测实 例分析并与模糊优选预测结果进行了对比。研究表明集对分析法具有计算简单、关系结构清晰、预测精度较高的特点 ,可 应用于年径流预测。 关键词 :集对分析 ;年径流 ;预测 中图分类号:P333 　　　文献标识码 :A Cuntan Station of the Yangtze River Annual Runoff Forecasting with Set Pair Analysis Method WANG Hongfang1 , HUANG Weijun 1 ,2 , WANG Wensheng1 , WANG Sufang3 ( 1. Hydropower College , Sichuan University , Chengdu 610065 ,China ; 2. Guangxi College of Hydropower , Nanning 530023 ,China ; 3. Handan Hy droelectric Investigation and Design Institute , Handan 056021 ,Hebei ,China) Abstract :The basic principle of set pair analysis ( SPA) is discussed and the basic thought and procedure of annu al runoff forecast based on SPA is also presented in this paper. According to the data from Cuntan Station of the Yangtze River , the forecast method of annual runoff is presented and compared with the fuzzy analysis. The re sults indicated that the presented method of set pair analysis is more accurate , simpler and more reasonable , and is feasible to the forecast of annual runoff . Key words :set pair analysis ; annual runoff ; forecast ( ) ( ) 　　集对分析法 简称 SPA 是我国学者赵克勤 的两个集合 A 、B 的特性做同一性、差异性、对立