基于ardl方法分析福建资源利用与经济增长关系.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2011,31(1) ：156~162 China Environmental Science 基于 ARDL 方法分析福建省资源利用与经济增长关系 * 王 远 ,郭培坤,周 婧,朱晓东,陆根法 (南京大学环境学院,污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏 南 京 210093) 摘要：运用物质流分析方法以及最新发展的自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL),对福建省 1990~2008 年资源利用和实际 GDP 二者关系进行检验 和分析.采用了物质流分析指标中直接物质投入来表征区域资源利用量.ARDL 边界检验结果表明,资源利用和经济增长间存在稳定的长期 均衡关系.进一步通过 ARDL 模型揭示了区域经济增长对资源利用长期弹性系数,其值约为 0.73,通过误差修正模型揭示了短期弹性系数, 表明了经济增长到资源利用的长期格兰杰因果关系.对福建省经济增长和资源保护战略提出了政策建议.这一研究思路和方法具有普适性, 可以适用于其他地区关于资源利用和经济增长的问题的讨论和研究. 关键词：经济增长；资源利用；物质流分析；自回归分布滞后模型；福建 中图分类号：X196,F205 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2011)01-0156-07 * Relationship between resources use and economic growth in Fujian Province: an ARDL approach. WANG Yuan , GUO Pei-kun, ZHOU Jing, ZHU Xiao-dong, LU Gen-fa (State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China). China Environmental Science, 2011,31(1)： 156~162 Abstract ：Material flow analysis (MFA) approach and the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach were integrated to examine the relationship between resource use and real GDP for Fujian Province, during the period of 1990-2008. The proxy variable of resource use could be estimated by measuring direct material input (DMI), a sub-account of MFA. A long-run equilibrium cointegration relationship could be found to exist between resource use and the explanatory variable: economic growth, using the ARDL bounds testing. The long-run parameter of economic growth on resource use was estimated to be approximately 0.73 through a long-run static solution of the ARDL model, and that for the short-run was estimated by the error correction model