线性动态系统模型在实时洪水预报中的应用.PDF

16 水力发电·2003 年·第 29 卷·第 6 期 ( ) 文章编号 2003 线性动态系统模型 在实时洪水预报中的应用 梁忠民 ,栾承梅 ,李致家 (河海大学水资源环境学院 ,江苏 南京 　210098) 关键词 :线性动态系统 ;最小二乘法 ;实时洪水预报 ;AIC 准则 ;逐步回归 摘 　要 :应用一般的线性动态系统模型理论 ,并结合衰减记忆最小二乘递推识别的实时校正技术 ,建立了鄱阳湖吴 城站水位过程的实时预报方案。模型结构采用 AIC 准则法和逐步回归筛选法综合确定 ,模型参数采用最小二乘法 估计。应用结果表明 ,该预报模型适用于湖泊水位这类缓变型水文变量的预报 ,可以用于实时作业预报。 Application of a linear dynamic system model in realtime flood forecasting LIANG Zhongmin , LUAN Chengmei , LI Zhijia ( ) College of Water Resources and Environment , Hohai University , Nanjing Jiangsu 210098 Key Words : linear dynamic system , least square method , realtime forecasting , AIC , stepbystep regression Abstract : Combing with the decreasingmemory least square arithmetic , the theory of a linear dynamic system is applied to build the scheme to forecast the stage hydrograph at Wucheng gauge station. The model structure is determined by AIC and stepbystep regression arithmetic , parameters of the model are estimated by the least square method. Results demonstrated that the method de veloped by this study is applicable to the predication on hydrological variations that gradually vary in value , such as the lake stage forecasting or similar predicting problems. 中图分类号:P3389 ;N94512 　　　文献标识码 :A ( ) 实时洪水预报是非工程防洪措施的重要内容之 式中, Q t 为系统输出, 如预报断面在未来 t 时刻 一 ,