武陵源风景区生态承载力预警.pdfVIP

27 11 V ol. 27, No. 11 2007 11 ACTA ECOLOG ICA SIN ICA Nov. , 2007 1 2, * 2 1 3 董成森 , 陈端吕 , 董明辉, 邹冬生 , 熊 鹰 ( 1. , 410128; 2 . , 415000; 3. , 410082) : , , , , , BP , , 17 , , 2000, ; , , BP , , , : ; ; ; ; : 1000-0933 ( 2007) 11-4766- 11 : Q 149 : A Forecasting system for ecological carrying capacity of W ulingyuan Scenic Spot based on ANN 1 2, * 2 1 3 DONG Cheng-Sen , CHEN Duan-Lu , DONG M ing-Hu i, ZOU Dong-Sheng , X IONG Y ing 1 Institute of Ecology, H unan Ag ricultural University, Chang sha 410128, Ch ina 2H unan Un iversity of A rts and Science, Changde 415000, China 3 College of E nvironm enta l Science and Eng ineering, H unan University, Chang sha 410082, Ch ina A cta E co log ica S in ica, 007, 7( 11) : 4766~ 4776. Abstract: Humans are currently facing serious env ironm ental challenges at global and local levels. Sustainab le development has becom e equally mi portant w ith national security in recent years. The susta inable ecological carrying capacity of an ecosystem is best indicated by the relation betw een eco log ical carrying capacity and ecolog ical load. T he present research ami ed to develop a forecasting system for m easuring sustainability of ecosystem in Wu lingyuan Scenic Spot using an early w arning of eco logical carry ing capacity. For this, the evaluat ion indices system of ecolog ical carrying capacity in W ulingyuan Scenic Spot w as established using principal components analysis ( PCA ) and analyt ic hierarch