倂购Conrail产生的综效.pptVIP

The Acquisition of Consolidated Rail Corporation CSX CEO TEAM COO 陳佳汎 CIO 趙恬嘉 CFO 李禧宜 CSO 陳柏翰 CEO 蔡馥仰 Railroading Background(1) Railroading Background(2) Important acquisition Burlington Northern Santa Fe Pacific(1995) Synergy 560 million per year—BNSF 4.0billion Union Pacific Southern Pacific(1996) Synergy 660million per year in five years 5.4billion Acquisition Target-Conrail Controlled 29.4% of the Eastern rail freight Connected the Major Northeastern cities Midwestern hubs Near Monopoly control Northeast rail market The least efficient railroad in the East IPO in 1987 倂購Conrail產生的綜效(1) 倂購Conrail產生的綜效(2) PV of Synergy (I) 存續期間：保守估計，合併後Synergy存續10年 折現率選擇：Rwacc of CSX-Conrail = 7.5% Why choose it? Synergy is from the merger. CSX possibly leverage buyout 40% of Conrail. CAPM：Rs = 8.24% 產業βunlevered = 0.96 合併後，CSX-Conrail 的D/E = 33% Income tax rate = 35% βlevered of CSX-Conrail = 1.166 Rf= 6.54% ; Rm= 8% PV of Synergy (II) RB = 8.08% Assume rating is Baa. PV of Synergy = $1,917 million Source: (1) Cost reduction (2) Revenue increase Acquisition Shares = 90.5 million shares PV of Synergy per share = $21.2 Stock price (S0) = $71 每股合理價格 = $71 + $21.2 = $92.2 市場Valuation參考指標(I) 市場Valuation參考指標(II) Conrail Financial Data Debt = $2,094 million Sales = 3,722 mn EBITDA = 1,017 mn EPS = $4.84 Book Value = $32.46 參考EPS 及EBITDA multiple 計算結果 在無競標者出現的情況下，CSX出價價格可介於每股$83.3 ~ $96之間 CSX’s Offer for Conrail ~Two-tiered Offer Cash vs. Stock Offer (I) Cash vs. Stock Offer (II) Front-end Tender Offer Efficiency and strategy concerns The fair value statute concern Cut the front –end offer into two stages The majority concern At least 50.1% of Conrail’s shares Supporting Parties Outcome of Conrail’s Acquisition Pennsylvania’s Business Corporation Law Fair value statute Voting rights statute Constituency statute Important Provisi