动态博弈在应急决策中应用.docVIP

动态博弈在应急决策中应用 　　【摘 要】本文将动态博弈应用于应急决策的制定过程，将“突发事件”与“决策者”假设为博弈的双方，综合考虑事件阶段、事件类型，根据事件进展中阶段结果和信息变化，利用贝叶斯法则修正先验概率的动态决策过程，该方法充分考虑了应急管理决策过程中信息的变化及决策的动态调整，对应急决策实践有一定的借鉴作用。 【关键词】动态博弈；先验概率；后验概率；应急管理 [Abstract] The task at one stage varies with the previous action and the reaction in Emergency management. Dynamic game theory extends project management process from static to dynamic. It’s suitable to suppose that decision-making process is a dynamic game process between the two players of “decision maker” and “emergency” itself. Decision maker could update prior probability consistently along with the increasing information and previous activities. Based on Bayesian rule， we raise a dynamic game model to help choose optimal strategy and take actions. Finally， a case study is given to illustrate the application of above decision method. [Key words] Dynamic game；Prior probability；Posterior probability；Emergency management 1. Introduction Various kinds of incidents occurred more frequently in recent years. The 911 incident happened in 2001 was one of the social security incidents made by human beings while “SARS” appeared in 2003 was one of the public health incidents triggered by bacteria. There were other kinds of emergency which had made great tragedy on human beings such as the power blackouts in August 2003 in North America and tsunami natural disasters on Indian Ocean in 2005[1]. Although the probability of all these incidents is very small， negative influence is no negligible. It’s necessary for us to study emergency management because it can help us control disaster and reduce uncertainty. There has been much research on emergency management recently， some on emergency laws， regulations， standards and organizations[2]， some on location and distribution of resources[3][4]， some on information management system for the emergency management[5][6]， and still others on classification of emergency in incidents management[7]. Although these systems have played