牛津大学:AI 超越人类编年史 When Will AI Exceed Human Performance Evidence from AI Experts.docxVIP

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牛津大学:AI 超越人类编年史 When Will AI Exceed Human Performance Evidence from AI Experts.docx

牛津大学:AI 超越人类编年史 When Will AI Exceed Human Performance Evidence from AI Experts

WhenWillAIExceedHumanPerformance?EvidencefromAIExpertsKatjaGrace1,2,JohnSalvatier2,AllanDafoe1,3,BaobaoZhang3,andOwainEvans11FutureofHumanityInstitute,OxfordUniversity2AIImpacts3DepartmentofPoliticalScience,YaleUniversityAbstractAdvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)willtransformmodernlifebyreshapingtransportation,health,science,finance,andthemilitary[1,2,3].Toadaptpublicpolicy,weneedtobetteranticipatetheseadvances[4,5].HerewereporttheresultsfromalargesurveyofmachinelearningresearchersontheirbeliefsaboutprogressinAI.ResearcherspredictAIwilloutper-formhumans in many activitiesin the next ten year

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