Malmendier, U, Tate, G amp; J Yan (2011) Overconfidence ：迪尔，U，泰特，G amp；我过分自信燕（2011年）.docx

Journées de Microéconomie AppliquéeNice, 6-7 juin 2013How to not become a millionaire: Self-confidence and the Intuitive Bayesian HypothesisMuniza Askari and Louis Lévy-GarbouaAbstractWe study confidence held by subjects in their own ability to perform a difficult task before and after receiving training for this task in an easy mode. Experimental subjects were asked to estimate their subjective probability of solving anagrams under a given time limit. In a long training phase of nine rounds, a maximum of six anagrams could be solved each round in eight minutes. Subjects earned a sum of money if they solved at least two-thirds of the total number of anagrams. The task was novel but relatively easy since 89% passed the test. Successful participants were then asked to double or quits in two successive sessions of increasing difficulty. 26% passed the second level test and less than 15% passed the third level test. Those deciding quits left the game with the money already earned, while those choosing double could substantially increase their gains if they succeeded to solve increasing numbers of anagrams under the same rules in two successive levels of three rounds each. However, they would lose part of their earnings and step out of the game if they failed to reach any of these levels. The double or quits decision was repeated for those who had reached the second level. They could leave the game with their gains or engage in three final rounds in the hope of reaching the third and highest level.Three treatments were considered. The required number of anagrams was imposed in the first two treatments but differed between the treatments. In the “wall” treatment, subjects who chose double after reaching level 1 faced a wall of 10 anagrams during two sessions of three rounds each. In the “hill” treatment, they faced a rising slope of 8 anagrams during the first session and 12 anagrams during the second session. The total number of anagrams required to reach the highest lev