贝莱德智库：2016年投资展望-CYCLES OUT OF SYNC 2016 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK.pptxVIP

CYCLES OUT OF SYNC2016 INVESTMENT OUTLOOKDECEMBER 2015BL ACKROCK INVESTMENT INSTITUTESummaryThe monetary policy cycle has dominated financial markets for years. As the global liquidity wave crests, the business, credit and valuation cycles should gain in importance. Unusually, these cycles appear to be out of sync. This argues for careful navigating in 2016.} We see an extension of the business cycle as crucial for further gains in risk assets. With valuations no longer cheap and corporate profit margins under pressure in many markets, economic growth is needed to boost revenues. We expect little or no price appreciation in fixed income and only muted gains for most equity markets in 2016.} China’s economic deceleration and shift to a consumer-driven economy are putting the brakes on the global business cycle. Both are part of a natural evolution but pose structural challenges to emerging markets (EMs) and commodity producers. We expect China to muddle through. Risks, including a yuan devaluation, are rising – but we do not see them coming to a head in 2016.} The knock-on effects of movements in oil prices and the US dollar are critical. Falling oil prices have dragged down long-term inflation expectations. This is puzzling and brings into question the credibility of central bank inflation targets. The dollar’s rise has led to some tightening in financial conditions. Further gains would intensify pressure on US profits, commodity prices and EM currencies.} EM economies are in a downturn due to their China dependency and the commodity price implosion. Cyclical factors such as an uptick in global growth and better trade balances due to currency depreciations could give a (temporary) lift to depressed EM equities.} The US economic expansion is following the script of a grinding advance after a banking crisis and likely has room to run. A lot is riding on therecovery as other economies are struggling. We see a gradual path to higher US rates in 2016, but think the