短期电力负荷预测论文：基于粒子群优化的局部支持向量回归短期电力负荷预测建模方法研究.docVIP

短期电力负荷预测论文：基于粒子群优化的局部支持向量回归短期电力负荷预测建模方法研究 【中文摘要】短期电力负荷预测影响社会经济效益,是电网安全稳定运行的基础。随着电力市场的不断发展,人们对短期电力负荷预测精度的要求也越来越高。本文首先介绍电力负荷预测的背景、国内外研究现状以及课题的研究意义。为了解负荷变化的特点和规律,本文还分析了短期电力负荷的特性及其影响因素。由于短期电力负荷和各种影响因素之间存在强非线性的关系,本文提出基于支持向量回归(SVR)来建立短期电力负荷预测模型。虽然SVR在很多场合的应用都很成功,但它忽略了样本间局部变化的趋势,影响了预测精度。故此,本文提出基于局部支持向量回归(LSVR)的短期电力负荷预测模型,该模型通过捕捉个体间的局部变化趋势,有效提高预测模型性能。此外,由于在基于LSVR的建模过程中,关键参数的选取依赖于实验者的实际经验,所以难以取得最好的预测模型。为了进一步提高预测精度,本文提出使用粒子群算法(PSO)来优化LSVR中的4个参数,得到基于PSO-LSVR的预测模型。最后,本文使用杭州2009年和2010年的电网运行数据进行算法实验,分别建立基于SVR、LSVR、PSO-LSVR的预测模型,并进行仿真。通过仿真结果的比较,表明PSO-LSVR模型有效提高了预测精度。 【英文摘要】Short-term load forecasting (STLF) can affect social economy benefits. It is the basis for safe and stable operation of power systems. With the continuous development of electricity market, high precision of STLF is required.In this paper, STLF抯 background, research status and significance were presented firstly. In order to understand the characteristics and disciplines of the load changes, this paper analyzed the short-term load characteristics and its influence factors. Because of the strong nonlinear relationship between short-term load and its influence factors, STLF model based on support vector regression (SVR) of was proposed.Although SVR has been successfully applied in many domains, it lacks the trend between training datas, and this will lead to decrease forecasting accuracy. Consequently, Localized Support Vector Regression (LSVR), which can capture this trend and inprove the performance of the model, was proposed in this paper. In addition, the selection of key parameters depends on the experience of the researches in the process of building LSVR model, so the forecasting model was not very accurate. The model based on PSO-LSVR was proposed to improve the accuracy of forecasting, which used particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the better parameters.Finally, this paper used the datas from HangZhou’s electric power department and built models based on SVR、LSVR and PSO-LSVR respectively. The perf