太阳能科技英文 课件 Photovoltaic Solar Energy.ppt

Photovoltaic Solar EnergyFutures Presented to the Minnesota Futurists 16 May 2009 Dick Saunders and David Keenan But first a word from our sponsor The Futurist Tool of the day Trend Analysis and Extrapolation Trend Analysis Extrapolation A Method Everyone Uses Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based on historical data. Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an emerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the world around us. Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is and what its implications might be. You could first look at historical data Trend Analysis Extrapolation Trend Analysis Extrapolation Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the trend forward. You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes continue indefinitely? Are there upper limits to the trend? What other forces may affect the trend? At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather than objective extrapolation of historical data. Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will continue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to begin trying to understand the future. It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up with absurd results. Trends to Analyze in This Talk Solar Cells Market size Market share Sales Units Power produced Cost per power delivered Agenda The Sun Solar Cells Background How they work Types Markets Costs Countries Companies Questions Now on with the show Energy from the Sun About half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earths surface. The Earth receives 174?petawatts (PW) (1015 watts) of incoming solar radiation at the upper atmosphere. Approximately 30% is reflected back to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses. Earths land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and this rais