卫生人力规划与预测模型 - CMB.ppt

World Health Organization * * World Health Organization * * World Health Organization * * World Health Organization * * World Health Organization * * World Health Organization * * World Health Organization * * World Health Organization * * * World Health Organization * * * World Health Organization * * * Models for health workforce planning and projections | * | Models for health workforce planning and projections 卫生人力规划与预测模型 HRH planning and projections卫生人力资源的规划与预测 The purpose of workforce planning projections is to 人力规划与预测的目的 contribute to evidence-based, rationalize decisions in the formulation of national HRH policies and strategies . 有助于国家制定合理的、有证据支持的卫生人力资源政策与策略 rationalize policy options based on a (financially) feasible picture of the future in which the expected supply of HRH matches the requirements for staff within the overall health service plans 基于政策的可行性合理化政策选择，在整体健康服务计划中，根据工作人员的要求进行卫生人力资源的补充 identify short and longer term actions for achieving longer-term objectives.为实现长期目标，确定短期或长期行动 Making projections is a policy-making necessity, and needs regular re-evaluation and adjustment 预测是制定政策的必要，且需要定期的再评估及调整。 Uncertainties with projections预测中的不确定因素 Country situation changes (demographic, epidemiological, economic, etc.)国家情况的改变（人口，流行病，经济等） The capacity (both current and projected) for implementing the proposed interventions执行干预的能力（现在及未来） Conflicting priorities for different stakeholders 不同利益相关人优先权的冲突 leadership turnover 政权的更迭 Actions of stakeholders that can impact on health systems development 影响卫生系统发展的活动 Linking health workforce requirements and supply projections卫生人力需求及补充预测 Source: Hornby 2007 Factors affecting HRH Supply影响卫生人力资源补充的因素 Health Workers Supply 卫生人力补充 HRH production / training capacity 卫生人力资源产出/培训能力 human capital stock 人力资本存量 other resources 其他资源 global, regional, local exit and entry forces, labor market conditions全球性或区域性人口流动，及劳工市场的情况 Health Workers Attrition / Loss 卫生人力的流失 death, out-migration 死亡，移民 career change 职业变换 Methods of supply pr