具有不同传染率的流行病模型研究.docVIP

毕业设计（论文） 题 目 具有不同传染率的流行病模型研究 学 院 专业班级 学生姓名 指导老师 成 绩   2012 年 06 月 25 日 摘 要 本文通过对双线性传染率，标准传染率及饱和传染率三种传染率建立了不考虑出生，迁入，迁出及非疾病致死等种群动力学因素的SI流行病的模型并进行了相应的分析。给出了实际中预测流行病传染高峰期染病者数量的计算方法，并通过实际例子并讨论了它们在实际生产生活中的应用，得出如果流行病是通过媒介传播的，由于携带病菌的媒介在环境中的分布与传染病传播载体的活动能力关系不大而只与其数量成正比，因而此时建立传染病模型研究传染病传播规律时只采用双线性传染率。如果传染病是通过接触传播的，则应根据染病物种的种群数量及其活动能力等实际因素，选择相应的传染率，建立传染病模型对传染病的传播规律进行分析。 关键词：双线性传染率; 标准传染率; 饱和传染率; 种群动力学 Abstract In this paper, the bilinear infection rates, the standard infection rate and the saturated infection rate three infection rates do not consider birth, moved to quit and non-disease mortality, the SI of the population dynamics of infectious diseases and the corresponding analysis. Given method of calculating the actual predicted number of communicable disease peak of infected persons, and through practical examples and discuss their application in the actual production and life, come to if infectious disease is spread through the media, due to bacteria-carrying medium relationship in the activity of the carrier distribution in the environment and the spread of infectious diseases is not only proportional to their number, and thus the establishment of infectious disease model to examine the law of the spread of infectious diseases are the bilinear infection rates. Infectious diseases is analyzed by exposure to the spread should be based on the populations of infected species, its activities, and practical factors such as requirements need to select the infection rate to establish the law of the infectious disease model for the spread of infectious diseases. Keywords: Alpha Bilinear infection r