A Positive Analysis of Monetary Policy’s Influence on Economic Growth.docVIP

精品论文 参考文献 A Positive Analysis of Monetary Policy’s Influence on Economic Growth 吴恩超 （上海师范大学，上海 浦东 200235) 中图分类号：F822.0 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-2738（2012）02-0159-03 Abstract: In view of the co-integration test and Granger causality test, this paper has respectively conducted the positive analysis of the relationship between the GDP in China and the money supply at all levels. The empirical research has demonstrated that in the long term there is the balanced co-integration relationship and the causal relationship between the GDP and the money supply while in the short term the character of money supplyrsquo;s influence on the GDP is essentially the same as that of the long term. However, the influence of M2 on the GDP is reversed, namely when M2 rises the GDP will drop instead. As a result, during making the policy of money supply the state should aim at driving the growth of GDP while during making the policy of interest rate the state should consider the balanced interest rate. At the same time, they also should synthetically apply the fiscal policy so as to strengthen the flexibility and sustainability of the monetary policy. Key Words: monetary policy; GDP; co-integration test; Granger causality test There is a close relationship between the money supply and the economic growth in the modern market economy. Consequently, the analysis of the relationship between the changes of money supply and the economic growth will be important to formulate the correct macro-economic control policy. I. Data Sources and Statistical Methods: Data Explanations. This paper has aimed at examining the influence of the monetary policy in China on the economic growth. As a result, in the respect of monetary policy we have selected the different money supply M0, M1, and M2 as the research objects while in the respect of reflecting the national economic growth the GDP may be divided into the nominal GDP and the actual GDP according to the different accounting pr