改进的突变模型及其在水资源评价中的应用 An improved catastrophe model and its application in water resources assessment.pdfVIP

第34卷第4期 水 利 水 电科 技 进 展 2014年7月 Vol.34 No.4 Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources Jul. 2014 DOI:10.3880/ j.issn.1006 7647.2014.04.010 改进的突变模型及其在水资源评价中的应用 郑德凤,臧摇 正,王平富 (辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁 大连摇 116029) 摘要:针对突变理论和传统突变模型对多目标、多准则复杂系统进行决策分析时,评价结果容易受 到主观因素影响致使其准确性较低的问题,利用传统突变模型对辽宁省农业水资源可持续利用水 平进行评价,比较不同方案得出的评价结果,分析传统突变模型的灵敏度;在此基础上,提出基于熵 值法和熵权理论改进的突变模型,并进一步进行验证。 结果表明,改进突变模型能有效避免人为主 观因素的影响,评价方法科学合理,评价结果客观准确。 关键词:突变模型;熵权;灵敏度;水资源评价;辽宁省 中图分类号:TV213摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1006 7647(2014)04 0046 07 An improved catastrophe model and its application in water resources assessment/ / ZHENG Defeng,ZANG Zheng, WANG Pingfu(School of UrbanPlanning and Environmental Science,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China) Abstract:When the traditional catastrophe progression method are used to make a decision for a multi鄄object and multi鄄 criterion complicated system,the assessment resultsare easily affectedby subjectivefactorsand itsveracity arelimited. In order to analyze the reliability of catastrophe progression method in practice,the sustainable utilization level of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province are evaluated by using traditional catastrophe model. Furthermore,the sensitivity are analyzed by comparing the assessmentresultsof different schemes. Basedontheabove鄄mentionedchallenges,animproved catastrophemodel,basedonentropymethodandentropyweighttheory,areproposed. Theresultsareevaluatedbyusingan improved catastrophe model and the information of objective facts of the study area. The example application showed that the improved catastrophe model can effectively avoid factitious subjectivity and are more scientific and reasonable. Additionally,the results are more objective and accurate. Key word