CURRENCY AND STATE POWER货币与国家权力.ppt

CURRENCY AND STATE POWER Benjamin J. Cohen University of California, Santa Barbara SUMMARY Question: What is the effect of an int’l currency (IC) on state power? Analytical strategy: Disaggregate the roles of an IC – 3 questions: What is the effect of each role alone? Are there interdependencies among roles? What are their relative or cumulative impacts? Conclusion: Three roles are paramount – in financial markets, trade, and central-bank reserves CONTEXT Conventional wisdom: an IC increases state power. But what are the specific causal pathways? To answer, we must understand – Meaning(s) of state power Implications of separate roles STATE POWER Monetary power: a complex phenomenon. Two issues Autonomy vs. influence Autonomy = capacity to delay or deflect costs of balance-of-payments adjustment Influence derives from autonomy Influence may be passive or active Relations as a source of power Relevance of asymmetries, dependencies Influence as a function of centrality of position THE AGENDA What is the effect of an IC on an issuing state’s network position? What is the effect on the state’s monetary autonomy? What is the effect on the state’s capacity for influence? What is the likelihood that influence will be actualized? MONEY AND POWER Conventional wisdom: an IC yields benefits to the issuing country Seigniorage Macroeconomic flexibility Reputation Leverage Problem: What are the specific causal pathways? Answer: need to disaggregate the separate roles of an IC ROLES OF AN INT’L CURRENCY Private level (markets) Forex trading (medium of exchange) Trade invoicing (m/e, unit of account) Investment (store of value) Official level (policy) Intervention currency (m/e) Exchange-rate anchor (u/a) Reserve currency (s/v) THE CURRENCY PYRAMID “Top” currency (US dollar) Universal in scope (all six roles) Universal in domain (the globe) “Patrician” currencies (euro, yen) Limited number of roles Mostly regional “Elite” currencies (sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, etc