基于灰色—小波神经网络的有效泊位预测.docVIP

基于灰色—小波神经网络的有效泊位预测 韩印 郑喆 赵靖 刘彩云 上海理工大学管理学院 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 针对停车场有效停车泊位的变化特征, 提出了基于灰色—小波神经网络的组合模型.先通过灰色单因素预测模型对有效停车泊位时间序列进行修正处理, 再基于分步式小波神经网络模型对修正预测值进行运算, 并通过马克科夫链预测模型得到更精确的预测区间, 并利用实际案例分析, 对模型的预测精度、稳定性、拟合度和训练时间进行了评价.研究表明, 灰色—小波神经网络预测模型可降低初始数据波动性的干扰, 与传统神经网络相比, 预测结果误差波动性降低了10%19%, 稳定性提高了27%33%, 拟合度提高了10%15%, 精确度明显提高. 关键词： 交通工程; 有效停车泊位; 灰色单因子预测; 小波神经网络; 作者简介：韩印 (1964-) , 男, 黑龙江佳木斯人, 教授, 博士. 作者简介：赵靖, jing_zhao_traffic@163.com 收稿日期：2017-04-24 基金：国家自然科学基金 Forecasting of Effective Parking Space Based on Grey-distributed Wavelet Neural Network Model HAN Yin ZHENG Zhe ZHAO Jing LIU Cai-yun Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology; Abstract： Aiming the variation characteristics of the effective parking space, a combination model based on the grey single factor forecast model and the wavelet neural network model is proposed to forecast the effective parking space. Firstly, the effective parking space time series are revised through the grey single factor forecast model in order to reduce the random fluctuation. Then the data is input in the distributed wavelet neural network model and corrected though the Markov Chain forecast model to get the finial forecast results. The prediction accuracy, stability, fitting degree, and training time of the proposed model are evaluated by a case study. Results show that the proposed model can reduce the variation interference of the initial data. Comparing with the traditional neural network, the proposed model could reduce the error fluctuation 10%19%, increase the stability 27%33%, improve the fitting degree 10%15% improved, and has higher accuracy. Keyword： traffic engineering; effective parking space; grey single factor forecast; wavelet neural network; Received： 2017-04-24 0 引言 有效停车泊位是指当前停车场内可用来停放车辆的泊位[1], 具有时间波动性、空间不均匀性、资源局限性等特征, 采取合适的方法对有效停车泊位进行实时、精确预测, 可使停车资源得到更合理的利用. 对于有效停车泊位的预测研究, 最先采用的是线性时间序列预测方法[2-3], 该方法假定系统中的各变量