人口老龄化对浙江经济的发展论文.doc

2015届毕业论文 人口老龄化对浙江经济发展的影响 The Study of Aging Population Influence on Economic Development of Zhejiang Province ? 摘要 自1978年改革开放以来，随着总和生育率下降和平均预期寿命增长，浙江省人口老龄化进程不断加快。据统计数据显示，1978年浙江省老龄化系数只有4.94%，1988年底达到了7.07%，至2008年老龄化系数已增长到11.3%。浙江是我国老龄化突出的省份之一，人口老龄化的加剧不仅会加重社会负担，而且还不利于人力资源的合理配置。所以，正确认识老龄化的发展历程和成因，准确预测老龄化系数的变动趋势和峰值期，及时提出改善人口结构有效对策，将对浙江省的经济发展、社会保障等具有重大意义。 本文以这样的研究思路出发，首先选用索洛增长模型为基础理论模型，将人口老龄化因素纳入到标准的索洛模型中，分析人口老龄化因素对经济平衡增长路径的影响，并进行动态分析，找出人口老龄化对经济平衡增长路径影响的零效应点;在理论分析的基础上，利用浙江的人口数据进行定性验证。然后利用VAR模型进行定量分析，实证分析浙江人口老龄化对其经济发展的影响。 理论分析结果表明当养老水平为，经济平衡增长路径不受人口老龄化的影响，也即是人口老龄化对经济增长的零效应点。用浙江的数据进行验证得出浙江自从1999年养老实际水平就超过了其养老水平临界值，即人口老龄化因素对其经济增长存在着一定的负影响，定量分析的结果也和这个结果吻合:老年人口抚养比的对数每上升1%，人均实际GDP对数就下降1.743 %。另外人口老龄化对经济发展其他方面影响的分析表明:人口老龄化会降低居民储蓄率、减少劳动力供给量、加重社会养老负担、促进产业结构调整等。根据这些研究结果，就浙江如何应对人口老龄化的负面影响、利用其带来的发展机遇，文章最后提出了一些对策建议。 【关键词】人口老龄化；老年人口抚养系数 ；索洛增长模型；VAR模型 Abstract With the decreasing in total fertility rate and increasing in average life expectancy, the process of population aging in Zhejiang Province has been accelerating since reform and opening.According to statistical data, the aging coefficient in Zhejiang Province was only 4.9% in 1978, and it has already reached 7.07% by the end of 1988. Moreover, it has reached 11.3% by the year of 2008. Zhejiang is one of the provinces with serious population aging problem in China. The worse of population aging not only aggravates the society burden, but also undermines the rational allocation of the human resources. Therefore, it will play an important role in social security，economic development and other aspects of Zhejiang to understand the development process of aging coefficient and the causes correctly in Zhejiang Province and will be also important to predict the trend of aging coefficient and propose effective measures. Based on the research idea of this, this paper first selects the solow growth model based on the theory model, the population aging factors into the standard in the solow model, analysis of