第9章 失业和通货膨胀.pptVIP

How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Quantity of Output 0 Short-run aggregate supply (a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Unemployment Rate (percent) 0 Inflation Rate (percent per year) Price Level (b) The Phillips Curve Phillips curve Low aggregate demand High aggregate demand (output is 8,000) B 4 6 (output is 7,500) A 7 2 8,000 (unemployment is 4%) 106 B (unemployment is 7%) 7,500 102 A Copyright ? 2004 South-Western 2.长期菲利普斯曲线 长期总供给曲线与价格无关 长期菲利普斯曲线是一条位于自然失业率水平的垂直线 长期菲利普斯曲线与长期总供给曲线是同一枚硬币的两面 三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve） The Long-Run Phillips Curve Unemployment Rate 0 Natural rate of unemployment Inflation Rate Long-run Phillips curve B High inflation Low inflation A 2. . . . but unemployment remains at its natural rate in the long run. 1. When the Fed increases the growth rate of the money supply, the rate of inflation increases . . . Copyright ? 2004 South-Western How the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Quantity of Output Natural rate of output Natural rate of unemployment 0 Price Level P AD1 LRAS LRAS (a) The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Unemployment Rate 0 Inflation Rate (b) The Phillips Curve A AD2 B A P2 B Copyright ? 2004 South-Western 对通货膨胀预期的调整把短期与长期 菲利普斯曲线联系起来。 弗里德曼和费尔普斯引入预期通胀率后的菲利普斯曲线： 3.预期与短期菲利普斯曲线的移动 三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve） How Expected Inflation Shifts the Short-Run Phillips Curve Unemployment Rate 0 Natural rate of unemployment Inflation Rate Long-run Phillips curve Short-run Phillips curve with high expected inflation Short-run Phillips curve with low expected inflation 1. Expansionary policy moves the economy up along the short-run Phillips curve . . . 2. . . . but in the long run, expected inflation rises, and the short-run Phillips curve shifts to the right. C B A Copyright ? 2004 South-Western 重要结论： 决策者面临着通货膨胀和失业的交替关系，但只是暂时的。如果决策者利用这种交替关系，这种交替关系就不存在了。 三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve） 3.预期与短期菲利普斯