基于趋势外推模型的我国人口老龄化预测分析.pdfVIP

Aging Research 老龄化研究, 2015, 2(3), 15-21 Published Online September 2015 in Hans. /journal/ar /10.12677/ar.2015.23003 Population Aging Prediction in China Based on Trend Extrapolation Model Xiaoxiao Yin School of Statistics and Mathematics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming Yunnan Email: yinxiaoxiao2011@163.com th th st Received: Aug. 7 , 2015; accepted: Aug. 28 , 2015; published: Aug. 31 , 2015 Copyright © 2015 by author and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract With economic development, the problem of population aging is getting worse. This paper, based on the elderly population data, establishes trend extrapolation model for forecasting the future development trend of population aging. The results show that aging population from 2015 to 2024 increases year by year. But compared to the previous, population aging has slowed. The prediction of the future trends of population aging has a certain reference value and provides a basis for Chi- na to develop and implement related policies. Keywords Population Aging, Trend Extrapolation Model, Predictions 基于趋势外推模型的我国人口老龄化预测分析 尹潇潇 云南财经大学统计与数学学院，云南 昆明 Email: yinxiaoxiao2011@163.com 收稿日期：2015年8月7 日；录用日期：2015年8月28 日；发布日期：2015年8月31 日 摘 要 随着经济的发展，我国人口老龄化问题越来越严重。本文基于老年人人口数据，建立趋势外推模型对未 文章引用: 尹潇潇 (2015) 基于趋势外推模型的我国人口老龄化预测分析. 老龄化研究, 3, 15-21. /10.12677/ar.2015.23003 尹潇潇 来人口老龄化发展趋势进行预测。结果表明：我国2015~2024年的老龄化人口逐年递增，但相比以前， 人口老龄化速度减缓。预测人口老龄化的未来发展趋势，具有一定的参考价值，为我国制定实施相关政 策提供依据。 关键词 人口老龄化，趋势外推模型，预测 1. 引言 老龄化[1]是指年轻人在总人口中所占比例减少而老年人比例逐渐增加的一个动态变化过程