多重目标下宏观调控思路调整与政策匹配_张杰.pdfVIP

宏观经济 MACROECONOMY 多重目标下宏观调控思路调整 与政策匹配* Thinking Adjustment and Policies Matching of Macro-control under the Multi Targets 张 杰 翟福昕 内容提要 现阶段我国经济增长面临着经济增长减速、制造业泡沫化、房价波动和影子银行四大主要风险，集 中体现为以制造业为主的实体经济增长乏力以及房地产价格波动可能导致金融风险两大问题。 我国宏观调控 的四大目标“稳增长、调结构、促改革、防风险”之间存在内在的冲突与困境，且难以通过一种或几种政策目标的 组合加以解决。 供给侧的政策转型是破解我国经济增长动力缺失难题与当前宏观调控政策困局的最优选择，具 体应从推进金融体系改革、打破垄断体系、减轻企业负担三方面着力。 关键词 宏观经济 宏观调控 全面深化改革第一年 作者单位 中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院北京 100872 ，中国人民大学财政金融学院北京 100872 Zhang Jie Zhai Fuxin ’ Abstract: Currently, China s economic growth is faced with four major risks, including economic slowdown, manufacturing industry bubbles, housing price fluctuations and shadow banks. And these risks embody two main problems, from weak growth of the manufacturing-based real economic to financial risks probably caused by housing ’ “ price fluctuations. China s current macro-control policies are focusing on multiple targets of maintaining economic growth, making structural adjustments, promoting economic reforms and preventing economic risks ”. However, these targets contracts with each other and cannot be solved by combining two or more of them together. As a result, our paper proposes an effective solution by practicing supply -side -based macro -control policy transformation. Specifically, it should spur efforts in three aspects: promoting financial reform, breaking the monopoly system and reducing the burden of enterprises. Key words: macro economy, macro-control, the first year of comprehensive reform 现阶段，我国出现了经济增长内生动力持续弱化和经济风险加大的 双重经济发展困局。 一方面，我国潜在经济增长率出现了持续下降的态 势。 另一方面，存在着以制造业为主的实体经济增长乏力以及房地产价